Chris Kolmatycki

Johnny Damon hits,

Has no arm; Boras, no soul,

Why, Dombrowski, why?

As a Game Designer, there is one skill that trumps all others in importance. The skill of communication is absolutely invaluable when dealing with all facets of a game’s life cycle. How do you want the soccer players to move following a cross into the box? Should the Carolina Hurricanes play the trap more often than other teams? Do the enemies have a high skill in using lead pipes? If they do, does it follow that they can use similar blunt objects just as well? As a designer, you should know the answer to these questions and why they are so.

There are many different components of a team (art, design, programming, etc.) and as teams often shuffle from project to project, not all members are educated in how things have worked in the past or, given something like a sports game, work in the real world. A programmer’s job is to create the vision of the designer and work around problems and bugs in order to do so.

In the example of a baseball game, the average person would likely not understand the in depth strategy of defensive shifts and fielder positioning. It is not a programmer’s job (though it would be extremely welcome and beneficial) to discern that since Ryan Howard is naturally a pull hitter, the CPU should move their fielders to the right side of the field. What they need to be able to do, is program the CPU to do that after the designer has properly communicated and explained that fact. The programmer can worry about how they wish to develop a system to determine how the defense plays for certain players.

Perhaps, even with a properly communicated explanation of why Ryan Howard pulls the ball when he hits, and why the fielders would want to adjust for that, the programmer could set up a system that, given certain attributes, can provide defensive shifts for other players such as Jim Thome or David Ortiz. Taking it a step further, if they are aware of other resources such as batter spray charts, the programmer could facilitate a script wherein the designer could create a criteria for when an AI ‘manager’ would call for his players to perform a defensive shift. This could go miles in establishing both a way of establishing manager ratings, AI, and even offensive player tendencies.

The point is, the greatest ideas mean nothing if you can’t communicate them effectively.  Though everyone thinks of communicating their ideas to an audience, people rarely seem to think about how they can communicate their ideas to the people responsible for building the game.  What do I suggest (strictly my opinion) for people trying to get into design?  Take some English or communications courses.  The skills of oral and written communication are always in high demand.

I think I’ve finally pinpointed the reason for my lack of blogging.  While the rest of the world has gone about specializing and finding a niche within the world, I’ve spent my time trying to learn a little about everything.  While this has opened my world up to being able to interact with people from many walks of life and communicate very effectively, it’s also proved to be a double edged sword in my attempt to obtain any form of expertise or specialization.

Given this, I’ve never felt like I could offer the Internet anything better than what already exists.  The original intent of this blog was to migrate away from my putting my random musings and personal events up for the world to see, and actually talk about something meaningful and interesting.  In this case, I was hoping to talk about my passion for the sport of baseball and my career in video games.  Unfortunately, my passion for the sport of baseball statistics is not enough to overcome my shortcomings in my inability to actually perform the calculations necessary to create my own statistical analysis.  Sites such as The Hardball Times do a better job of statistical analysis than I ever could and there are enough quality baseball blogs to keep the world happy for a long time.  Even my small market Blue Jays have a near-saturated blogosphere.

While I love playing games, problem solving, finding creative solutions to mundane problems, and all the things that are required in a Game Designer, I still feel too green to comfortably critique and share my experience with the masses.  Perhaps several released titles down the road, I can always return to share what I’ve learned…but until then, it’s probably better for all if I keep quiet on the matters.  That said, I’m sure people can learn from inexperience just as well as experience…

There is also the possibility that I am not lacking a niche at all, but that I have just not correctly identified it.  Instead of sharing expertise in a few areas, maybe my competitive advantage is being able to share my random thoughts with the world.  I’ll try that direction for a while.  May God have mercy on your soul.

People toss around hero a lot more than they should.  However, this man is indeed…a hero.  The story of Lionel Rodia is enough to melt the heart of any baseball or sports fan.  He’s done things I can only dream of and it’s a real (sort of) rags to riches type story about a die hard sports fan down on his luck, getting his 15 minutes of sorts working his way into the Philadelphia Phillies’ World Series winning game and celebration.

“Lionel goes 5′8″, 240, and he’s got the same shirt and lei as the players, so he looks like a player, which is maybe why he’s suddenly in the middle of every hug. And that’s about when Chase Utley says to Jimmy Rollins: “Let’s go celebrate!” And Lionel says exactly what you’d think he’d say, which is, “I’m with you guys!”

You’d be hard pressed to find a fan not wanting to be in his shoes for a day with their own team.  Though it may be a while before the Jays get any sort of playoff hardware…

Josh at Jorge Says No! has a great article on Vernon Wells’ ludicrous contract.  If Jays fans are complaining about not getting any big free agents, don’t expect them for a while.

Wells is set to make a meager $1.5 million this year before his contract explodes to $12.5 million in 2010, $23 million in 2011, and then $21 million until 2014.  All with a full no trade clause to boot.  In my opinion, Wells is a good player that has had severe injury problems.  As Josh states in the article, he is by no means an elite player.  The Jays are overspending and considering that Wells will make up just over 1/5 of what the Blue Jays have as their regular payroll (It’s just under $98 million this year), we better hope to God he opts out when he gets the chance in 2011.

There’s a total wealth of knowledge out there now at Sean Smith’s Baseball Projection.com with 2009 CHONE projections for every MLB team (as well as free agents and Japanese leagues). Though I am not a statistician, I thought I’d take advantage of some vacation time and have a take on what the season will look like for the Jays in the upcoming season.

In theory, that would’ve been fabulous. Unfortunately once I passed the production of the Jays’ starters, I could not decipher how to account for the performance of the Jays’ bench and got intimidated by all the intense calculations involved. Luckily, I came across the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, which did much of the work for me. Though there’s a gold mine of statistics out there, my greenhorn status is going to have to limit me to talking about a couple of interesting tidbits.

The way the standings project to are as follows (using Pythagorean Standings of course)

1. Yankees (99-63)

2. Red Sox (97-65)

3. Rays (93-69)

4. Blue Jays (80-82)

5. Orioles (76-86)

Using Replacement Level’s AL East penalty calculation, it looks like the Jays actually drop to 75-87. Needless to say, a disappointing season either way.

Offense

The short of it is that the Jays will once again have an anemic offense. Posting a .260/.322/.406 line, the Jays fall fairly below the next worst, Tampa offense. What’s interesting to note about this is that though the Jays have a poorer offense than the Orioles, the Orioles still project to finish worse than the Jays.

The 3rd place finishing Rays also only marginally edge out the Orioles offense, yet somehow manage to put up 17 more wins and score 30 more runs. Though the wins can be explained away with a superior Rays defense and a horrible Orioles pitching staff, I can’t say I’m sure where the extra 30 Rays runs come from…perhaps an extra 100 plate appearances? But I digress…

Essentially the Jays project to have the worst batting, slugging, and on base of any of the AL East teams, but still manage to hold on for 4th place. Why? Well I believe it has a little something to do with…

Pitching

Frankly, the Orioles have the worst FIP in the AL East. Even with their slightly above average defense, they project to have an ERA of 4.80. By far the worst pitching staff in the division. The Jay’s 2nd worst FIP of 4.25 drops down to an ERA of 4.16 once their division leading defense is taken into account. What’s worse, is that this data may not have taken into account that Marcum may miss the entire season and that McGowan’s status is uncertain. My opinion is that the Jays’ numbers can only get worse for Toronto.

Defense

The Jays appear to have the best defense in the division with their 39 Runs Saved (as calculated using RZR). Though already calculated into the above pitching numbers, it’s still an interesting thing to look at and see that the Jays’ ERA drops to 4.16 from 4.25 once you take it into account. That’s enough to put the Jays within striking distance of the Red Sox at 4.12. I was also surprised to see that highly touted John McDonald wasn’t even the best defensive player on the team. Scott Rolen playing at third is projected to outperform McDonald at third or shortstop.

Adam Everett is the top defensive rated shortstop in the league at +19 compared to McDonald’s +9 performance. I find this somewhat interesting due to the serious love and adoration McDonald gets among Toronto fans with many considering him a defensive God. Personally, I think he’s got hustle and defensive talent…but not enough to have a starting position with the Jays. Unfortunately, hustle doesn’t make up for runs. But this is another issue for another time..

Final Thoughts

For Blue Jays fans, the best thing about this season may be seeing Jesse Litsch coming of age into the rotation, and seeing how Travis Snider and Adam Lind pan out in every day roles. With injuries to the pitching staff and a basement offense, I think a 4th place prediction could possibly be the most that we can look forward to . Barring an implosion by one of the other teams, I think it’s viable that the Jays could be looking at a season in the cellar of the division. Only time will tell how things pan out…

Of course I’m not talking about. A.J., but his wife Karen Burnett. With The Blue Jay Hunter already confirming that she is a fox, the more attractive Burnett will be sadly missed. While her husband’s contract entitled her to 8 limo trips from Baltimore to Toronto a season, it’ll be interesting to see if the New York signing had more to do with location than the dollar signs.

Though I’m totally speculating, I would say whatever her career may be, it’ll likely be furthered with the glitz and glamor of NYC as opposed to Baltimore. If she’s staying in Baltimore, a move to New York will be a lot easier a commute by going from the 9 hour drive to Toronto to a 3 hour drive to New York.

Oh and by the way, here’s an interesting Facebook profile for members, and even more interesting public profile (complete with friends, service, product, and political fandom). It appears she’s a big fan of Obama, partying, and Mark Finkenstaedt Photography. Refresh the public profile and the friends list changes to reveal even more friends and family of the Burnett clan. Such wonderful information is publicly available on the Internet.

It’s not to say that A.J. was a horrible pitcher, but he never lived up to his potential in Toronto, he seemed like he hated being here, and he was constantly injured. Though I think the Jays would be a better team with A.J., I don’t think he would’ve stayed for a price that made sense. With the Yankees paying him $82.5 million over 5 years, I think there’s a lot of room for downside given his injury prone past. Baseball Think Factory has an interesting quick projection on his stats for next season and I personally think that performance can be achieved at a lower price. They also interestingly note that Burnett has been unable to have a season as good as even an “Average” Mike Mussina season.

I think the Jays have a nice stable of young guns in their system and can put together a competitive team without Burnett, but with injuries having already taken their toll on the Jays’ rotation, the Jays will need to come up with something this off-season…unless they just plan to write this one off (a likely situation).