Here are their projected ’09 lines:

John McDonald

Adam Everett

Offense

The first thing to note is that Adam Everett is projected to have about double the number of AB as McDonald. This will make it somewhat difficult to analyze many of the stats, but with some creativity and statistical leniancy, we can perhaps make some projections on these projections .

As you can see, each of their averages, on base, and slugging are nearly identical with Everett showing a little bit more power. McDonald is rocking a meager .592 OPS while Everett is holding up with a .620 OPS. Everything else seems to give Everett a slight edge in everything from power to contact to eye when you pro-rate them over the same number of appearances.

The other category I suppose we can look at is R/150, or the linear weights runs above average. This value is adjusted for league and ballpark and pro-rates (I assume) the number over 150 games. We see here that Everett only performs at a rate of 30 runs below average as opposed to McDonald’s 36 runs below average.

Defensive Rating

John McDonald has a defensive rating of 8 at shortstop while Everett is rated at a 19 RZR. Using these ratings we can see that Everett is a significantly better defensive player. What I woud like to see though would be some Runs Saved statistics for each player as I believe pitching would come into play on each player’s performance. It would be interesting to see the effects that each player’s performance would have. Regardless, based on defensive ratings, Everett easily takes the defensive crown.

Valuation and Quasi-Conclusions

Though I’m not sure if I’m using the 4th table on each player page correctly, I am thinking the values are calculated based upon finding the player’s defensive rating and moving across to find the player’s valuation.

John McDonald (+8 RZR used)

Adam Everett (+19 RZR used)

Now assuming I’m using this data correctly, we have a pretty decisive showing that overall, Everett is not only the better defensive player, but the better overall player as well. When factoring weighted batting runs, position, field, running, and defensive ability, Everett is hands down an overall better player and is worth 3 times as many wins. Even placing McDonald on the same defensive grouping as Everett, we can see that Everett is still worth about double the number of wins as McDonald. I suppose I could’ve just stuck to using the ‘Simple Valuation’, and not bothered with anything else in the posting, but where’s the fun in that?

What did I learn from this? I already had been of the opinion that McDonald was horrible and Everett couldn’t hit. What I did learn is that given the affection Jays fans have for McDonald, their minds may be blown if Everett would come here. I learned that despite my beliefs that anyone would be a better shortstop than McDonald, he is actually better than a replacement level player. I’ve also learned that according to this simple valuation, McDonald was also priced somewhat appropriately at the 1.9 million dollar contract he has and that the Tigers got an amazing deal on Everett with their 1 million dollar contract with performance incentives (though I’m unclear as to what those incentives entail).

It’ll be interesting to see how next season unfolds and I may find myself watching the relatively unexciting offensive performances of these players closely and seeing how these projections work out.

In theory, that would’ve been fabulous. Unfortunately once I passed the production of the Jays’ starters, I could not decipher how to account for the performance of the Jays’ bench and got intimidated by all the intense calculations involved. Luckily, I came across the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, which did much of the work for me. Though there’s a gold mine of statistics out there, my greenhorn status is going to have to limit me to talking about a couple of interesting tidbits.

The way the standings project to are as follows (using Pythagorean Standings of course)

1. Yankees (99-63)

2. Red Sox (97-65)

3. Rays (93-69)

4. Blue Jays (80-82)

5. Orioles (76-86)

Using Replacement Level’s AL East penalty calculation, it looks like the Jays actually drop to 75-87. Needless to say, a disappointing season either way.

Offense

The short of it is that the Jays will once again have an anemic offense. Posting a .260/.322/.406 line, the Jays fall fairly below the next worst, Tampa offense. What’s interesting to note about this is that though the Jays have a poorer offense than the Orioles, the Orioles still project to finish worse than the Jays.

The 3rd place finishing Rays also only marginally edge out the Orioles offense, yet somehow manage to put up 17 more wins and score 30 more runs. Though the wins can be explained away with a superior Rays defense and a horrible Orioles pitching staff, I can’t say I’m sure where the extra 30 Rays runs come from…perhaps an extra 100 plate appearances? But I digress…

Essentially the Jays project to have the worst batting, slugging, and on base of any of the AL East teams, but still manage to hold on for 4th place. Why? Well I believe it has a little something to do with…

Pitching

Frankly, the Orioles have the worst FIP in the AL East. Even with their slightly above average defense, they project to have an ERA of 4.80. By far the worst pitching staff in the division. The Jay’s 2nd worst FIP of 4.25 drops down to an ERA of 4.16 once their division leading defense is taken into account. What’s worse, is that this data may not have taken into account that Marcum may miss the entire season and that McGowan’s status is uncertain. My opinion is that the Jays’ numbers can only get worse for Toronto.

Defense

The Jays appear to have the best defense in the division with their 39 Runs Saved (as calculated using RZR). Though already calculated into the above pitching numbers, it’s still an interesting thing to look at and see that the Jays’ ERA drops to 4.16 from 4.25 once you take it into account. That’s enough to put the Jays within striking distance of the Red Sox at 4.12. I was also surprised to see that highly touted John McDonald wasn’t even the best defensive player on the team. Scott Rolen playing at third is projected to outperform McDonald at third or shortstop.

Adam Everett is the top defensive rated shortstop in the league at +19 compared to McDonald’s +9 performance. I find this somewhat interesting due to the serious love and adoration McDonald gets among Toronto fans with many considering him a defensive God. Personally, I think he’s got hustle and defensive talent…but not enough to have a starting position with the Jays. Unfortunately, hustle doesn’t make up for runs. But this is another issue for another time..

Final Thoughts

For Blue Jays fans, the best thing about this season may be seeing Jesse Litsch coming of age into the rotation, and seeing how Travis Snider and Adam Lind pan out in every day roles. With injuries to the pitching staff and a basement offense, I think a 4th place prediction could possibly be the most that we can look forward to . Barring an implosion by one of the other teams, I think it’s viable that the Jays could be looking at a season in the cellar of the division. Only time will tell how things pan out…