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Click the link above to read an insider’s perspective on Baseball in Venezuela. Great read in light of the recent Wilson Ramos abduction.

As many of you know, I’m a pretty big baseball fan.  I’m also a pretty big fan of statistics and video games.  When those are combined, I fall into a deep love.  Recently, I was given the opportunity to play and review Out of the Park Baseball 12.  I’d previously tried playing other sim games but the only one that ever stuck with me was the amazing Baseball Mogul series.  The BM series was always a favourite of mine because it straddled the line between complexity and fun and managed to be an incredibly friendly experience.

With a few more years under my belt since I last tried an OOTP game, I gave OOTP 12 a try.  The first huge plus came before I even started up the program.  Not needing to load my Mac into boot camp to play on Windows is a HUGE plus.  The fact that the developers took the time to port the game over to OS X is a huge win.  On game start-up, I saw all the lines of text, options, and buttons capable of allowing me to craft my ideal league.  There was definitely a time when I would’ve been overwhelmed by all the available options but now with a few more years under my belt, I began to embrace the full-on customization.  Some of the things you can do in this game are downright fantastic in terms of creating a whole new world of baseball.  In order to detail a comprehensive list of available customizations, I’d probably need to post a series .

The two aspects that have always interested me in OOTP are its Expansion and Historical League options.  Expansion has you starting from scratch by adding a new franchise, going through an expansion draft, signing free agents from leagues around the world…literally what many would assume the job of a GM would be.  Halifax can now get its much deserved baseball team! Absolutely fantastic.  The one I spent more time on however was going back to 1977 and building my beloved Toronto Blue Jays from the ground up.  The game’s historical options allow you to go to essentially any point in baseball history and pick up managing a team.  Great for anyone interested in being the evil souls to move the Dodgers to LA or go back to a time when the Pirates and Royals weren’t laughing stocks.

I must say, the game and its customization are great.  As someone who really likes to feel in control and take more of a back-office role, this game is exactly what I was looking for.  In terms of being an arm-chair GM, this is the only solution.  Having tried to go back to Baseball Mogul, I just can’t do it anymore.  Once you hit the point where you can comprehend the extensive list of options and statistics available to you, this is the only way to go.

In terms of areas for improvement, beyond the obvious and unavoidable complexity issues, there are only a handful I could pinpoint.  Though few in number, the problems are large in size.  The first to tackle are with the general user interface.  Though much information is available to you, I personally found that much of it was useless or redundant.  Additionally, given the sheer amount of menus and pages available, it can be difficult to find certain pages.  At times, links do not act the way you’d expect and you can find it difficult to get to the page you need to be at.  Much of this can be solved by using the right-click context menu however.

Further, I found it difficult to determine the effect any of my coaches or scouting staff were having.  Having ran a few experiments for seasons, I didn’t notice much of a difference in performance.  For scouting, I had a considerably odd experience.  For many of my fictional players, my scouts seemed absolutely useless.  Even with perfect ratings, it still seemed like a complete crap shoot as to whether prospects pan out.  I realize that prospects come with inherent risk of busting but it seemed like the in game Baseball America rankings were better than my perfect scouts at judging talent.  This is a real shame as I think a coaching and scouting element is absolutely essential to games like this.  As an aside, it would also be nice to be able to assign tasks to scouts in a queue instead of having to continuously wait until one task is completed.

Bugs also became quite a big problem in the game.  I experienced several crashes and an eventual apparent save game corruption that made me lose 3 seasons of work.  After some digging, I found a possible solution to recover my game.  But, to be honest, the amount of work I had put in, followed by the loss of it all, followed by the complicated steps that must be taken to recover my game, just proved to be too frustrating an experience.  In a few weeks time, I can guarantee I’ll be back in the saddle though starting up my dynasty once more.

In conclusion, I may have spent far more time on the cons than the pros, but that is more due to the fact that these were pretty much the only problems I had with an otherwise perfect game .  Completely solid offering and I’d recommend it to any baseball fan looking to fulfill their dream of being a big-league GM.

Inside-the-park home runs are usually the result of a gross fielder error, a crazy weird bounce, or a fielder getting injured. Chase Utley’s from last night had a bit of a bad bounce, but was probably one of the most exciting ones I’ve seen.  Check out his facial expression as he’s rounding 3rd base.  Absolutely priceless!

Johnny Damon hits,

Has no arm; Boras, no soul,

Why, Dombrowski, why?

As a Game Designer, there is one skill that trumps all others in importance. The skill of communication is absolutely invaluable when dealing with all facets of a game’s life cycle. How do you want the soccer players to move following a cross into the box? Should the Carolina Hurricanes play the trap more often than other teams? Do the enemies have a high skill in using lead pipes? If they do, does it follow that they can use similar blunt objects just as well? As a designer, you should know the answer to these questions and why they are so.

There are many different components of a team (art, design, programming, etc.) and as teams often shuffle from project to project, not all members are educated in how things have worked in the past or, given something like a sports game, work in the real world. A programmer’s job is to create the vision of the designer and work around problems and bugs in order to do so.

In the example of a baseball game, the average person would likely not understand the in depth strategy of defensive shifts and fielder positioning. It is not a programmer’s job (though it would be extremely welcome and beneficial) to discern that since Ryan Howard is naturally a pull hitter, the CPU should move their fielders to the right side of the field. What they need to be able to do, is program the CPU to do that after the designer has properly communicated and explained that fact. The programmer can worry about how they wish to develop a system to determine how the defense plays for certain players.

Perhaps, even with a properly communicated explanation of why Ryan Howard pulls the ball when he hits, and why the fielders would want to adjust for that, the programmer could set up a system that, given certain attributes, can provide defensive shifts for other players such as Jim Thome or David Ortiz. Taking it a step further, if they are aware of other resources such as batter spray charts, the programmer could facilitate a script wherein the designer could create a criteria for when an AI ‘manager’ would call for his players to perform a defensive shift. This could go miles in establishing both a way of establishing manager ratings, AI, and even offensive player tendencies.

The point is, the greatest ideas mean nothing if you can’t communicate them effectively.  Though everyone thinks of communicating their ideas to an audience, people rarely seem to think about how they can communicate their ideas to the people responsible for building the game.  What do I suggest (strictly my opinion) for people trying to get into design?  Take some English or communications courses.  The skills of oral and written communication are always in high demand.

People toss around hero a lot more than they should.  However, this man is indeed…a hero.  The story of Lionel Rodia is enough to melt the heart of any baseball or sports fan.  He’s done things I can only dream of and it’s a real (sort of) rags to riches type story about a die hard sports fan down on his luck, getting his 15 minutes of sorts working his way into the Philadelphia Phillies’ World Series winning game and celebration.

“Lionel goes 5’8″, 240, and he’s got the same shirt and lei as the players, so he looks like a player, which is maybe why he’s suddenly in the middle of every hug. And that’s about when Chase Utley says to Jimmy Rollins: “Let’s go celebrate!” And Lionel says exactly what you’d think he’d say, which is, “I’m with you guys!”

You’d be hard pressed to find a fan not wanting to be in his shoes for a day with their own team.  Though it may be a while before the Jays get any sort of playoff hardware…

Josh at Jorge Says No! has a great article on Vernon Wells’ ludicrous contract.  If Jays fans are complaining about not getting any big free agents, don’t expect them for a while.

Wells is set to make a meager $1.5 million this year before his contract explodes to $12.5 million in 2010, $23 million in 2011, and then $21 million until 2014.  All with a full no trade clause to boot.  In my opinion, Wells is a good player that has had severe injury problems.  As Josh states in the article, he is by no means an elite player.  The Jays are overspending and considering that Wells will make up just over 1/5 of what the Blue Jays have as their regular payroll (It’s just under $98 million this year), we better hope to God he opts out when he gets the chance in 2011.

To follow up a previous entry, I decided to take some newbie analysis at comparing Toronto Blue Jays shortstop, John McDonald, with his Detroit Tigers counterpart, Adam Everett. Why? Because Adam Everett is projected to be the best defensive shortstop this season, and many seem to act like John McDonald holds that role. Personally, though I think McDonald has great spirit and hustle, I think he’s an offensive cancer on the Jays lineup and I don’t think there’s any way he should be a starting player. We’ll soon see if my feelings are misplaced or not.

Here are their projected ’09 lines:

John McDonald

Adam Everett

Offense

The first thing to note is that Adam Everett is projected to have about double the number of AB as McDonald. This will make it somewhat difficult to analyze many of the stats, but with some creativity and statistical leniancy, we can perhaps make some projections on these projections .

As you can see, each of their averages, on base, and slugging are nearly identical with Everett showing a little bit more power. McDonald is rocking a meager .592 OPS while Everett is holding up with a .620 OPS. Everything else seems to give Everett a slight edge in everything from power to contact to eye when you pro-rate them over the same number of appearances.

The other category I suppose we can look at is R/150, or the linear weights runs above average. This value is adjusted for league and ballpark and pro-rates (I assume) the number over 150 games. We see here that Everett only performs at a rate of 30 runs below average as opposed to McDonald’s 36 runs below average.

Defensive Rating

John McDonald has a defensive rating of 8 at shortstop while Everett is rated at a 19 RZR. Using these ratings we can see that Everett is a significantly better defensive player. What I woud like to see though would be some Runs Saved statistics for each player as I believe pitching would come into play on each player’s performance. It would be interesting to see the effects that each player’s performance would have. Regardless, based on defensive ratings, Everett easily takes the defensive crown.

Valuation and Quasi-Conclusions

Though I’m not sure if I’m using the 4th table on each player page correctly, I am thinking the values are calculated based upon finding the player’s defensive rating and moving across to find the player’s valuation.

John McDonald (+8 RZR used)

Adam Everett (+19 RZR used)

Now assuming I’m using this data correctly, we have a pretty decisive showing that overall, Everett is not only the better defensive player, but the better overall player as well. When factoring weighted batting runs, position, field, running, and defensive ability, Everett is hands down an overall better player and is worth 3 times as many wins. Even placing McDonald on the same defensive grouping as Everett, we can see that Everett is still worth about double the number of wins as McDonald. I suppose I could’ve just stuck to using the ‘Simple Valuation’, and not bothered with anything else in the posting, but where’s the fun in that?

What did I learn from this? I already had been of the opinion that McDonald was horrible and Everett couldn’t hit. What I did learn is that given the affection Jays fans have for McDonald, their minds may be blown if Everett would come here. I learned that despite my beliefs that anyone would be a better shortstop than McDonald, he is actually better than a replacement level player. I’ve also learned that according to this simple valuation, McDonald was also priced somewhat appropriately at the 1.9 million dollar contract he has and that the Tigers got an amazing deal on Everett with their 1 million dollar contract with performance incentives (though I’m unclear as to what those incentives entail).

It’ll be interesting to see how next season unfolds and I may find myself watching the relatively unexciting offensive performances of these players closely and seeing how these projections work out.

There’s a total wealth of knowledge out there now at Sean Smith’s Baseball Projection.com with 2009 CHONE projections for every MLB team (as well as free agents and Japanese leagues). Though I am not a statistician, I thought I’d take advantage of some vacation time and have a take on what the season will look like for the Jays in the upcoming season.

In theory, that would’ve been fabulous. Unfortunately once I passed the production of the Jays’ starters, I could not decipher how to account for the performance of the Jays’ bench and got intimidated by all the intense calculations involved. Luckily, I came across the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, which did much of the work for me. Though there’s a gold mine of statistics out there, my greenhorn status is going to have to limit me to talking about a couple of interesting tidbits.

The way the standings project to are as follows (using Pythagorean Standings of course)

1. Yankees (99-63)

2. Red Sox (97-65)

3. Rays (93-69)

4. Blue Jays (80-82)

5. Orioles (76-86)

Using Replacement Level’s AL East penalty calculation, it looks like the Jays actually drop to 75-87. Needless to say, a disappointing season either way.

Offense

The short of it is that the Jays will once again have an anemic offense. Posting a .260/.322/.406 line, the Jays fall fairly below the next worst, Tampa offense. What’s interesting to note about this is that though the Jays have a poorer offense than the Orioles, the Orioles still project to finish worse than the Jays.

The 3rd place finishing Rays also only marginally edge out the Orioles offense, yet somehow manage to put up 17 more wins and score 30 more runs. Though the wins can be explained away with a superior Rays defense and a horrible Orioles pitching staff, I can’t say I’m sure where the extra 30 Rays runs come from…perhaps an extra 100 plate appearances? But I digress…

Essentially the Jays project to have the worst batting, slugging, and on base of any of the AL East teams, but still manage to hold on for 4th place. Why? Well I believe it has a little something to do with…

Pitching

Frankly, the Orioles have the worst FIP in the AL East. Even with their slightly above average defense, they project to have an ERA of 4.80. By far the worst pitching staff in the division. The Jay’s 2nd worst FIP of 4.25 drops down to an ERA of 4.16 once their division leading defense is taken into account. What’s worse, is that this data may not have taken into account that Marcum may miss the entire season and that McGowan’s status is uncertain. My opinion is that the Jays’ numbers can only get worse for Toronto.

Defense

The Jays appear to have the best defense in the division with their 39 Runs Saved (as calculated using RZR). Though already calculated into the above pitching numbers, it’s still an interesting thing to look at and see that the Jays’ ERA drops to 4.16 from 4.25 once you take it into account. That’s enough to put the Jays within striking distance of the Red Sox at 4.12. I was also surprised to see that highly touted John McDonald wasn’t even the best defensive player on the team. Scott Rolen playing at third is projected to outperform McDonald at third or shortstop.

Adam Everett is the top defensive rated shortstop in the league at +19 compared to McDonald’s +9 performance. I find this somewhat interesting due to the serious love and adoration McDonald gets among Toronto fans with many considering him a defensive God. Personally, I think he’s got hustle and defensive talent…but not enough to have a starting position with the Jays. Unfortunately, hustle doesn’t make up for runs. But this is another issue for another time..

Final Thoughts

For Blue Jays fans, the best thing about this season may be seeing Jesse Litsch coming of age into the rotation, and seeing how Travis Snider and Adam Lind pan out in every day roles. With injuries to the pitching staff and a basement offense, I think a 4th place prediction could possibly be the most that we can look forward to . Barring an implosion by one of the other teams, I think it’s viable that the Jays could be looking at a season in the cellar of the division. Only time will tell how things pan out…

Of course I’m not talking about. A.J., but his wife Karen Burnett. With The Blue Jay Hunter already confirming that she is a fox, the more attractive Burnett will be sadly missed. While her husband’s contract entitled her to 8 limo trips from Baltimore to Toronto a season, it’ll be interesting to see if the New York signing had more to do with location than the dollar signs.

Though I’m totally speculating, I would say whatever her career may be, it’ll likely be furthered with the glitz and glamor of NYC as opposed to Baltimore. If she’s staying in Baltimore, a move to New York will be a lot easier a commute by going from the 9 hour drive to Toronto to a 3 hour drive to New York.

Oh and by the way, here’s an interesting Facebook profile for members, and even more interesting public profile (complete with friends, service, product, and political fandom). It appears she’s a big fan of Obama, partying, and Mark Finkenstaedt Photography. Refresh the public profile and the friends list changes to reveal even more friends and family of the Burnett clan. Such wonderful information is publicly available on the Internet.

It’s not to say that A.J. was a horrible pitcher, but he never lived up to his potential in Toronto, he seemed like he hated being here, and he was constantly injured. Though I think the Jays would be a better team with A.J., I don’t think he would’ve stayed for a price that made sense. With the Yankees paying him $82.5 million over 5 years, I think there’s a lot of room for downside given his injury prone past. Baseball Think Factory has an interesting quick projection on his stats for next season and I personally think that performance can be achieved at a lower price. They also interestingly note that Burnett has been unable to have a season as good as even an “Average” Mike Mussina season.

I think the Jays have a nice stable of young guns in their system and can put together a competitive team without Burnett, but with injuries having already taken their toll on the Jays’ rotation, the Jays will need to come up with something this off-season…unless they just plan to write this one off (a likely situation).