Chris Kolmatycki

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I put words together and hit the post button

The Luckiest Man in America

People toss around hero a lot more than they should.  However, this man is indeed…a hero.  The story of Lionel Rodia is enough to melt the heart of any baseball or sports fan.  He’s done things I can only dream of and it’s a real (sort of) rags to riches type story about a die hard sports fan down on his luck, getting his 15 minutes of sorts working his way into the Philadelphia Phillies’ World Series winning game and celebration.

“Lionel goes 5’8″, 240, and he’s got the same shirt and lei as the players, so he looks like a player, which is maybe why he’s suddenly in the middle of every hug. And that’s about when Chase Utley says to Jimmy Rollins: “Let’s go celebrate!” And Lionel says exactly what you’d think he’d say, which is, “I’m with you guys!”

You’d be hard pressed to find a fan not wanting to be in his shoes for a day with their own team.  Though it may be a while before the Jays get any sort of playoff hardware…

Jorge Says No! : What the Hell Were You Thinking? Vernon Wells Edition

Josh at Jorge Says No! has a great article on Vernon Wells’ ludicrous contract.  If Jays fans are complaining about not getting any big free agents, don’t expect them for a while.

Wells is set to make a meager $1.5 million this year before his contract explodes to $12.5 million in 2010, $23 million in 2011, and then $21 million until 2014.  All with a full no trade clause to boot.  In my opinion, Wells is a good player that has had severe injury problems.  As Josh states in the article, he is by no means an elite player.  The Jays are overspending and considering that Wells will make up just over 1/5 of what the Blue Jays have as their regular payroll (It’s just under $98 million this year), we better hope to God he opts out when he gets the chance in 2011.

McDonald vs. Everett

To follow up a previous entry, I decided to take some newbie analysis at comparing Toronto Blue Jays shortstop, John McDonald, with his Detroit Tigers counterpart, Adam Everett. Why? Because Adam Everett is projected to be the best defensive shortstop this season, and many seem to act like John McDonald holds that role. Personally, though I think McDonald has great spirit and hustle, I think he’s an offensive cancer on the Jays lineup and I don’t think there’s any way he should be a starting player. We’ll soon see if my feelings are misplaced or not.

Here are their projected ’09 lines:

John McDonald

Games Atbats Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG R150 POS Speed
111 272 31 64 13 1 2 25 5 2 15 43 2 0.235 0.280 0.312 -36 SS 6

Adam Everett

Games Atbats Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG R150 POS Speed
130 432 45 103 21 2 5 43 7 3 28 66 3 0.238 0.289 0.331 -30 SS 5.9

Offense

The first thing to note is that Adam Everett is projected to have about double the number of AB as McDonald. This will make it somewhat difficult to analyze many of the stats, but with some creativity and statistical leniancy, we can perhaps make some projections on these projections :) .

As you can see, each of their averages, on base, and slugging are nearly identical with Everett showing a little bit more power. McDonald is rocking a meager .592 OPS while Everett is holding up with a .620 OPS. Everything else seems to give Everett a slight edge in everything from power to contact to eye when you pro-rate them over the same number of appearances.

The other category I suppose we can look at is R/150, or the linear weights runs above average. This value is adjusted for league and ballpark and pro-rates (I assume) the number over 150 games. We see here that Everett only performs at a rate of 30 runs below average as opposed to McDonald’s 36 runs below average.

Defensive Rating

John McDonald has a defensive rating of 8 at shortstop while Everett is rated at a 19 RZR. Using these ratings we can see that Everett is a significantly better defensive player. What I woud like to see though would be some Runs Saved statistics for each player as I believe pitching would come into play on each player’s performance. It would be interesting to see the effects that each player’s performance would have. Regardless, based on defensive ratings, Everett easily takes the defensive crown.

Valuation and Quasi-Conclusions

Though I’m not sure if I’m using the 4th table on each player page correctly, I am thinking the values are calculated based upon finding the player’s defensive rating and moving across to find the player’s valuation.

John McDonald (+8 RZR used)

if Defense is: Wins above Rep Dollar Value ($mil)
Good (+7 runs) 0.4 1.8

Adam Everett (+19 RZR used)

if Defense is: Wins above Rep Dollar Value ($mil)
Excellent (+15 runs) 1.2 5.3

Now assuming I’m using this data correctly, we have a pretty decisive showing that overall, Everett is not only the better defensive player, but the better overall player as well. When factoring weighted batting runs, position, field, running, and defensive ability, Everett is hands down an overall better player and is worth 3 times as many wins. Even placing McDonald on the same defensive grouping as Everett, we can see that Everett is still worth about double the number of wins as McDonald. I suppose I could’ve just stuck to using the ‘Simple Valuation’, and not bothered with anything else in the posting, but where’s the fun in that?

What did I learn from this? I already had been of the opinion that McDonald was horrible and Everett couldn’t hit. What I did learn is that given the affection Jays fans have for McDonald, their minds may be blown if Everett would come here. I learned that despite my beliefs that anyone would be a better shortstop than McDonald, he is actually better than a replacement level player. I’ve also learned that according to this simple valuation, McDonald was also priced somewhat appropriately at the 1.9 million dollar contract he has and that the Tigers got an amazing deal on Everett with their 1 million dollar contract with performance incentives (though I’m unclear as to what those incentives entail).

It’ll be interesting to see how next season unfolds and I may find myself watching the relatively unexciting offensive performances of these players closely and seeing how these projections work out.

Advice to Young Men from an Old Man

Taken directly from the best of Craigslist. An amazing anonymous posting of advice.

Date: 2007-02-15, 9:08AM PST

Advice to Young Men from an Old Man
1. Don’t pick on the weak. It’s immoral. Don’t antagonize the strong without cause, its stupid.

2. Don’t hate women. It’s a waste of time

3. Invest in yourself. Material things come to those that have self actualized.

4. Get in a fistfight, even if you are going to lose.

5. As a former Marine, take it from me. Don’t join the military, unless you want to risk getting your balls blown off to secure other people’s economic or political interests.

6. If something has a direct benefit to an individual or a class of people, and a theoretical, abstract, or amorphous benefit to everybody else, realize that the proponent’s intentions are to benefit the former, not the latter, no matter what bullshit they try to feed you.

7. Don’t be a Republican. They are self-dealing crooks with no sense of honor or patriotism to their fellow citizens. If you must be a Republican, don’t be a “conservative.” They are whining, bitching, complaining, simple-minded self-righteous idiots who think they’re perpetual victims. Listen to talk radio for a while, you’ll see what I mean.

8. Don’t take proffered advice without a critical analysis. 90% of all advice is intended to benefit the proponent, not the recipient. Actually, the number is probably closer to 97%, but I don’t want to come off as cynical.

9. You’ll spend your entire life listening to people tell you how much you owe them. You don’t owe the vast majority of people shit.

10. Don’t undermine your fellow young men. Mentor the young men that come after you. Society recognizes that you have the potential to be the most power force in society. It scares them. Society does not find young men sympathetic. They are afraid of you, both individually and collectively. Law enforcement’s primary purpose is to suppress you.

11. As a young man, you’re on your own. Society divides and conquers. Unlike women who have advocates looking out for them (NOW, Women’s Study Departments, government, non-profit organizations, political advocacy groups) almost no one is looking out for you.

12. Young men provide the genius and muscle by which our society thrives. Look at the Silicone Valley. By in large, it was not old men or women that created the revolution we live. Realize that society steals your contributions, secures it with our intellectual property laws, and then takes credit and the rewards where none is due.

13. Know that few people have your best interests at heart. Your mother does. Your father probably does (if he stuck around). Your siblings are on your side. Everybody else worries about themselves.

14. Don’t be afraid to tell people to “Fuck off” when need be. It is an important skill to acquire. As they say, speak your piece, even if your voice shakes.

15. Acquire empathy, good interpersonal skills, and confidence. Learn to read body language and non-verbal communication. Don’t just concentrate on your vocational or technical skills, or you’ll find your wife fucking somebody else.

16. Keep fit.

17. Don’t speak ill of your wife/girlfriend. Back her up against the world, even if she’s wrong. She should know that you have her back. When she needs your help, give it. She should know that you’ll take her part.

18. Don’t cheat on your wife/girlfriend. If you must cheat, don’t humiliate her. Don’t risk having your transgressions come back to her or her friends. Don’t do it where you live. Don’t do it with people in your social circle. Don’t shit in your own back yard.

19. If your girlfriend doesn’t make you feel good about yourself and bring joy to your life, fire her. That’s what girlfriends are for.

20. Don’t bother with “emotional affairs.” They are just a vehicle for women to flirt and have someone make them feel good about themselves. That’s the part of a relationship they want. For you it is a lot of work and investment in time. If they are having an emotional affair with you, they’re probably fucking someone else.

21. Becoming a woman’s friend and confidant is not going to get you into an intimate relationship. If you haven’t gotten the girl within a reasonably short period of time, chances are you won’t ever get her. She’ll end up confiding to you about the sexual adventures she’s having with someone else.

22. Have and nurture friendships with women.

23. Realize that love is a numbers game. Guys fall in love easily. You’re going to see some girl and feel like you’ll die if you don’t get her. If she rejects you, move on to the next one. It’s her loss.

24. Don’t be an internet troll. Got out and live life. There is not a cadre of beautiful women advertising on Craigslist to have NSA sex with you. Beautiful women don’t need to advertise. The websites that advertise with attractive women’s photos and claims of loneliness are baloney. All they want is your money and your personal information so that they can market to you. The posts on Craigslist by young “women” seeking NSA sex, and asking for a picture are just a bunch of gay troll pic collectors. This is especially true if the post uses common gay lexicon like “hole” as in “fuck my hole” or seeks “masculine” men, or uses the word cock (except in the context of “Don’t send a cock shot.”) There are women on Craigslist. They are easily recognizable by their 2-5 paragraph postings. Most are in their 30′s or older.

25. When you become a man in full, know that people will get in your way. People who are attracted to you will somehow manage to step in your path. Gay guys will give you “the look.” Old people will somehow stumble in front of you at the worst time. Don’t get frustrated. Just step aside and go about your business. Know that these are passive aggressive methods to get you to acknowledge their existence.

26. Don’t gay bash. Don’t mentally or physically abuse people because of who they are, or how they present themselves. It’s none of your business to try to intimidate people into conformity.

27. If your gay, admit it to yourself, your parents, your friends and society at large. Be prepared to get harassed. See rule 14. If someone threatens you or assaults you, call the cops. Have them arrested. You have no obligation to self sacrifice because of who you are. As a gay person, you’ll have more social freedom than straight men. Use it to protect yourself. Be prepared to get out of Dodge if your orientation makes your life unbearable. Move to San Francisco, New York, Atlanta, or New Orleans. You’ll find a welcoming community there.

28. Don’t be a poser. Avoid being one of those dudes who puts a surfboard on top of their car, but never surfs, or a dude with a powder coated fixed gear bike and a messenger bag, but was never a messenger. Live the life. Earn your bona fides.

29. Don’t believe the crap about the patriarchy. More women are accepted and attend college. More degrees are awarded to women than men. Women outlive men. More men commit suicide. Men are twice as likely to be victims of violence, including murder. If you consider sexual assaults in prisons, twice as many men are raped as women (society thinks prison rape is funny). The streets are littered with homeless men, sprinkled with a few homeless women. Statically, women are happier than men. The myth that girls are being cheated by are educational system is belied by the fact that schools are bastions of femininity, mostly run by and taught by women. Girls outperform boys in school. It is the boys in school getting fucked over, and prescribed ritalin for being boys. Real wages for men are falling, while real wages for women are rising. Just because someone says something enough times, doesn’t make it true. You have nothing to feel guilty about.

30. Remember, 97% of all advice is worthless. Take what you can use, and trash the rest.

vicioustwist
san francisco
02-15-07

A Look at the Jays’ 2009 Season

There’s a total wealth of knowledge out there now at Sean Smith’s Baseball Projection.com with 2009 CHONE projections for every MLB team (as well as free agents and Japanese leagues). Though I am not a statistician, I thought I’d take advantage of some vacation time and have a take on what the season will look like for the Jays in the upcoming season.

In theory, that would’ve been fabulous. Unfortunately once I passed the production of the Jays’ starters, I could not decipher how to account for the performance of the Jays’ bench and got intimidated by all the intense calculations involved. Luckily, I came across the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, which did much of the work for me. Though there’s a gold mine of statistics out there, my greenhorn status is going to have to limit me to talking about a couple of interesting tidbits.

The way the standings project to are as follows (using Pythagorean Standings of course)

1. Yankees (99-63)

2. Red Sox (97-65)

3. Rays (93-69)

4. Blue Jays (80-82)

5. Orioles (76-86)

Using Replacement Level’s AL East penalty calculation, it looks like the Jays actually drop to 75-87. Needless to say, a disappointing season either way.

Offense

The short of it is that the Jays will once again have an anemic offense. Posting a .260/.322/.406 line, the Jays fall fairly below the next worst, Tampa offense. What’s interesting to note about this is that though the Jays have a poorer offense than the Orioles, the Orioles still project to finish worse than the Jays.

The 3rd place finishing Rays also only marginally edge out the Orioles offense, yet somehow manage to put up 17 more wins and score 30 more runs. Though the wins can be explained away with a superior Rays defense and a horrible Orioles pitching staff, I can’t say I’m sure where the extra 30 Rays runs come from…perhaps an extra 100 plate appearances? But I digress…

Essentially the Jays project to have the worst batting, slugging, and on base of any of the AL East teams, but still manage to hold on for 4th place. Why? Well I believe it has a little something to do with…

Pitching

Frankly, the Orioles have the worst FIP in the AL East. Even with their slightly above average defense, they project to have an ERA of 4.80. By far the worst pitching staff in the division. The Jay’s 2nd worst FIP of 4.25 drops down to an ERA of 4.16 once their division leading defense is taken into account. What’s worse, is that this data may not have taken into account that Marcum may miss the entire season and that McGowan’s status is uncertain. My opinion is that the Jays’ numbers can only get worse for Toronto.

Defense

The Jays appear to have the best defense in the division with their 39 Runs Saved (as calculated using RZR). Though already calculated into the above pitching numbers, it’s still an interesting thing to look at and see that the Jays’ ERA drops to 4.16 from 4.25 once you take it into account. That’s enough to put the Jays within striking distance of the Red Sox at 4.12. I was also surprised to see that highly touted John McDonald wasn’t even the best defensive player on the team. Scott Rolen playing at third is projected to outperform McDonald at third or shortstop.

Adam Everett is the top defensive rated shortstop in the league at +19 compared to McDonald’s +9 performance. I find this somewhat interesting due to the serious love and adoration McDonald gets among Toronto fans with many considering him a defensive God. Personally, I think he’s got hustle and defensive talent…but not enough to have a starting position with the Jays. Unfortunately, hustle doesn’t make up for runs. But this is another issue for another time..

Final Thoughts

For Blue Jays fans, the best thing about this season may be seeing Jesse Litsch coming of age into the rotation, and seeing how Travis Snider and Adam Lind pan out in every day roles. With injuries to the pitching staff and a basement offense, I think a 4th place prediction could possibly be the most that we can look forward to . Barring an implosion by one of the other teams, I think it’s viable that the Jays could be looking at a season in the cellar of the division. Only time will tell how things pan out…